Old Bar has been listed as one of the top 20 suburbs in NSW to be most at risk of erosion in the next 30 years.
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While Old Bar sits at the number 11 position of the category in a Groundsure ClimateIndex report, a tool developed for property professionals to advise buyers of climate change risks (specifically floods, bushfires and coastal erosion), it is not in the top 20 list for suburbs affected by coastal erosion now.
However, Old Bar is listed by the NSW government as one of 15 "hotspots" along the coast of NSW where coastal erosion and the resulting risk of loss of assets is particularly high.
Data from Digital Earth Australia Coastlines maps the Australian shoreline and rates of coastal change from 1988 to the present.
Old Bar and Manning Point show up as bright red hotspots on the map. Zooming in shows how much the coastline has receded due to erosion from 1996 to 2022.
Data shows the shoreline at Old Bar has retreated by between -1.2 metres to -1.4 metres (+ or - 0.2) per year on average since 1988.
Comparison photos in the slider below show how much vegetation has been lost due to shoreline recession from 2009 to 2023.
Dune fencing and sand traps have been in place over the years as measures to try to mitigate erosion. Sand scraping, using sand taken from the intertidal zone - between high and low tides - and placed against the dune line, usually takes place after storms, floods or high seas have occurred, with the last sand scraping done in May 2023.
The Old Bar Sand Replenishment Group has been lobbying on the issue for a decade. In the past the group has urged that sand dredged from Farquhar Inlet be used to replenish sand at Old Bar Beach.
However, these are all temporary measures.
Exploring permanent options
MidCoast Council is currently working on a draft Old Bar Manning Point Coastal Management Program (CMP) and is seeking feedback from the community members on how use the coastline and what issues are important to them.
To date 56 submissions have been received. Feedback closes at 4pm, February 18, 2024. You can have your say at haveyoursay.midcoast.nsw.gov.au/old-bar-manning-point-cmp.
The Coastal Management Program will "assess and recommend a range of options to manage coastal erosion," MidCoast Council says.
"The coastal processes at Old Bar and Manning Point have been extensively researched and there have been many studies over several decades exploring engineering and other options to resist these processes and buy time."
Council's consultants have prepared a Probabilistic Hazard Model for the CMP. The report more precisely predicts the impact of coastal erosion and shoreline recession to 2100, council says.
"Methods of modelling have improved since the last study in 2010. This model uses ground penetrating radar to identify where sand or resistant bedrock is below the surface. It also runs millions of scenarios to predict the likelihood of an erosion event happening," Gerard Tuckerman, MidCoast Council manager natural systems, said.
The draft program will go on public exhibition in July 2024 to be then considered by council.
It is expected that certification of the program by the Department of Planning and Environment will occur in December 2024.