When the High Court ruled that people who could not be deported - some of whom had committed a crime and had finished serving a prison sentence - must not be detained indefinitely, the LNP clearly saw a chance to repeat the trick. These 149 people, it appears, were a danger that should have all 27 million of us uneasy in our beds.

A report that one of them had assaulted a woman had Ley thundering that, "If you do not want to see Australian women being assaulted by foreign criminals, vote against Labor", in the Dunkley byelection. Even when Victoria Police admitted that it was a case of mistaken identity, she defended the comment.

As illogical as it is, the trick has worked in the past. On August 26, 2001, the Norwegian freighter MV Tampa rescued 438 asylum seekers. As it approached Australia, John Howard refused it entry and sent SAS commandos to take control of the ship. Howard then rushed through changes known as the "Pacific Solution", using Manus Island in PNG and Nauru as dumping grounds for those seeking refuge here and causing immense harm to tens of thousands of them.

There is no doubt that the Coalition benefited politically. Had an election been held a month before the Tampa incident, opinion polls showed Labor would have won in a landslide. Even just days before the Tampa incident, the Coalition still trailed Labor by 34.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent. In a poll conducted on September 1-2, days after the Tampa sailed into Australian waters, primary support for the Coalition had already jumped 5 per cent to overtake Labor for the first time in two years.

At the time, former Liberal leader John Hewson wrote that Howard had "successfully manipulated prejudice to his personal political advantage," while former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Fraser said that "the destitute have been made pawns in a harsh political struggle". Much more was to come.

Howard then rushed through changes known as the "Pacific Solution", using Manus Island in PNG and Nauru as dumping grounds for those seeking refuge here and causing immense harm to tens of thousands of them.

Tony Abbott made "Stop the Boats" a major theme in his 2010 campaign and again, successfully, in 2013. But Labor's reaction has helped make the trick work.

In 2001, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley backed Howard's "Pacific Solution", only refusing to support a bill that would have essentially made it legal for Australian officials to use any, possibly including lethal, force against asylum seekers. But it didn't help Beazley - Howard still lashed him even for that. In 2013, Kevin Rudd responded to Abbott's "Stop the Boats" campaign with the July 19 proclamation that anyone coming by boat after that would "never" be settled here. At least 1000 people brought to Australia from Manus and Nauru are still on bridging visas with limited rights as a result.

Clare O'Neil responded to the hysteria over the High Court decision by saying that she had wanted to keep them detained. Labor rushed through the most draconian legislation in response.

In each case, the Labor response - designed to protect itself - has tended to legitimise the Coalition's fear campaign. So the pattern has been that the LNP creates fear, Labor moves to protect itself by looking "tough" but, in the end, the LNP benefits politically.

A reasonable response from Beasley and later Rudd might have been that we should return to the policies of Fraser and Hawke for dealing with Indochinese refugees rather than switching to some of the most inhumane in the world. A reasonable response from O'Neil might have been that there are over 25,000 people currently in Australian jails who have been sentenced to them by courts - some for very serious crimes. Some thousands are released every year.

Why should we be less afraid of them than the "foreign criminals" of Sussan Ley's fevered imagination? Otherwise, these people are essentially being given a life sentence.

But perhaps the trick is not working so well anymore. Over the years in which it has been employed, a growing section of the electorate has seen through it. Polls have shown that more than ever are opposed to offshore detention. One indication of this is that the LNP made much less use of the issue in the 2019 and 2022 elections. Another is the success of the Teal independents - all of whom have a much more humane position on the issue.

Many of them have spoken out publicly in favour of permanent visas for the more than 10,000 asylum seekers still in Australia on very restricted visas after a decade or more. One of those who has been very prominent is Kylea Tink, the independent member for North Sydney, who will speak at the March 24 Palm Sunday rally in Canberra calling for justice for refugees.

With Dutton now at the helm, the Coalition will use every opportunity before the next election to re-fight the "Stop the Boats" elections of 2001, 2010 and 2013.

Whether he succeeds is partly up to Labor. But it is mostly up to us.