MANNING Valley Race Club will conduct a seven event card today (Tuesday) at the Bushland Drive track with the first away from 1.27pm.
The track is likely to be a heavy 9/10 with the rail out 4m from 1000m to winning post and 3m the remainder, so likely on or just off the speed before trending wider as the meeting goes on.
Race 1 @ 1.27pm MID COAST AUTOMOTIVE 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; 3YO's; & apprentices can claim:
Another rain-soaked track so the flippers are on in an intriguing and tricky opener. Coffs Harbour filly 6. QADIRA STAR (Sally Taylor/Jon Grisedale, 57kg; $7.50 - $8.00) boxed away in strong fashion debuting in a handy maiden here, and the blinkers go on among a stack of gear changes.
MAIN DANGERS: Wyong filly 7. Enamour was caught wide two runs back at Newcastle before a plain run at Gosford, but she's bred to handle heavy tracks. Local filly 5. Atlantic Lite was right behind the place-getters here resuming, but steps on to a heavy surface for the first time. Gosford 3YO first starter 2. Gold Invest (Denman x Schellenberg by Commands) seemed to handle soft 7 ground easily in a recent trial when not pushed out, and steps out for the first time in blinkers.
Likely Tempo: Good
My betting attack: QADIRA STAR Each Way and Box Trifecta: 2,5,6,7
Race 2 @ 1.59pm TAREE CUP CARNIVAL 21 & 23 AUG CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
Plenty of chances here in a battle of tactics, with most getting out to this longer trip. Newcastle 4YO mare 3. TESSA BURRITO (Kris Lees/Ms Louise Day a0kg, 57kg; $6.00 - $6.50) is primed and ready for this distance now after hitting the line hard in two deeper affairs. Drawn out, but clearly one of the better wet trackers in the race. Was scheduled to go around at Monday's postponed Cessnock meeting.
MAIN DANGERS: Stablemate 4YO mare 4. Wild Sheila also did her best work late in that same mile race at Scone, and handed some weight relief, but doesn't have the heavy track credentials of my top selection. Port Macquarie 4YO 5. Flying Mojo is hard fit and also has a liking for wet tracks; and Coffs 3YO and former Victorian 1. Baileys will appreciate a drop in grade after hitting the line in the Grafton Guineas over a mile at big odds, but unproven in these conditions.
Likely Tempo: Fair
My betting attack: TESSA BURRITO Each Way and Box Trifecta 1, 3, 4, 5
Race 3 @ 2.31pm STACKS LAW FIRM MAIDEN PLATE (1250m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
Very keen on 3YO Wauchope gelding 3. HIGHBURY (Colt Prosser/Belinda Hodder, 59kg; $5 - $5.50) who was due to race at Sunday's cancelled Coffs Harbour meeting, but can re-load big time here. Has hit the line well all three runs this prep, and in only previous start on heavy ground over the mile at Gosford was beaten narrowly.
MAIN DANGERS: Promising 2YO filly 11. La Girl was scratched from a deeper maiden at Gosford on Saturday to be saved for this. Was solid first-up in heavy ground on the Kensington track off a long spell, and looks beautifully in at the weights here on 54.5kg. Wyong 2YO 10. Royal Charge has been close up in two runs back on soft ground, but not convinced these conditions will suit; while big watch on 2YO filly and first starter 12. Pleading (Star Witness x Onherelles by Honours List) who debuts off a quiet trial for the very astute Angela Davies yard; and Coffs filly 7. The Red One who was heavily backed first-up in heavy ground at Ballina..
Likely tempo: Solid
My betting attack: HIGHBURY to Win and Quinella: 3 & 11
Race 4 @ 3.03pm ADRIAN OWEN EQUINE VET CLASS 2 HCP (1250m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Tough and open race. Progressive Newcastle filly 7. JAJA CHABOOGIE (Kris Lees/Andrew Gibbons, 56kg; $3.25 - $3.40) faces more pressure here after a dominant second start maiden win in heavy ground at Tamworth where she sat outside the lead and kicked off a moderate tempo. Breeding suggests the wetter the better, and she's still the one to beat.
MAIN DANGERS: Port Macquarie 3YO 3. Stonecold Flex keeps turning up in handy races after bolting in his maiden here in autumn. Was only run down late in a BM 58, and while this is a shade tougher, drops in weight and will handle the going. Port Macquarie filly 11. Money Heist didn't finish off resuming in a strong CL1 at Grafton, but trainer has rung the gear changes, and she's bred to thrive on heavy tracks. Don't dismiss another Lees runner, 8. Mbappe who knocked up resuming in a good CL1 at Scone, but only win so far was second-up and can improve sharply at big odds.
Likely Tempo: Good
My betting attack: JAJA CHABOOGIE to Win
Race 5 @ 3.35pm THE GALOOTS BM 66 HCP (1250m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Perhaps the widest race of the day, with a stack of chances. Home track 5YO gelding 6. TEXAS STORM (Bob Milligan/Matthew Bennett, 59kg; $4.60 - $4.85) can shake the life out of this back in trip from a stronger Highway at Rosehill when he wasn't too far away from the smart Rothenburg who bolted in. Two of his three career wins have come in heavy going.
MAIN DANGERS: Newcastle filly 3. Illecebrous is in the best form of her career charging home from midfield to win her last two, although more depth here and rises in weight. Gosford 5YO 1. Time Of Glory can improve sharply second-up with blinkers going on; while Port Macquarie mare 2. Typhoon Bonny can mix her form, but generally saves the best for heavy-rated tracks. Include local 4YO 10. Flash Palace who drops back in trip if you're playing the wider exotics.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My betting attack: TEXAS STORM to Win
Race 6 @ 4.07pm BOOK NOW TAREE CUP BM 58 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Hard to see talented Newcastle 3YO 1. STAR RAIDER (Kris Lees/Dylan Gibbons a4kg, 58kg; $2.15 - $2.25) being beaten in his first-up run as a gelding with a 4kg claim, provided he leaves the barrier okay. Finished ahead of Le Romain in the second of two trials on a Soft 7 rating despite a tardy beginning, and on debut last spring bolted in as a hot favourite at Moree.
MAIN DANGERS: Wyong 3YO 5. Mathematics charged home to win a handy CL1 at Dubbo two runs back, and has a real preference for wet ground. Home track 4YO 2. Fair Dinkum is a threat off his strong finishing second-up effort here, although handicapper hasn't missed him up 5kg to 61kg, and not convinced he's at home in ultra heavy ground. Include Wauchope 5YO 6. Chief Havoc who has surged home late to win his last two, and while this is tougher, he thrives on rain-affected going.
Likely Tempo: Strong
My betting attack: STAR RAIDER to Win and Trifecta: 1,5/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6
Race 7 @ 4.39pm NATIONAL JOCKEY TRUST BM 58 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Another open contest over the mile to finish & they may be tracking wide by this stage. Local 3YO gelding 8. MEN IN TIGHTS (Wayne Wilkes/Andrew Gibbons, 57.5kg; $4.00 - $4.25) will likely go to the lead, and take some catching with senior country jockey getting back on. First time in the heavy, but has shown plenty in soft going to suggest he'll handle it.
MAIN DANGERS: Gosford 5YO gelding 7. Dashing 'N' Daring can bounce back after failing to finish off here third-up. Tough Port Macquarie 5YO 4. Condover Hall doesn't win out of turn, but he's been close-up in his last couple, although heavy track figures are not convincing. Expect Newcastle filly 9. Dissenter to improve sharply after failing first-up at Mudgee when easy in betting.
Likely tempo: Fair
My betting attack: MEN IN TIGHTS to Win
My best bets:
R3 3. HIGHBURY* Expect: $5.00 - $5.50; My Early Rating: $3.20
R4 7. JAJA CHABOOGIE** Expect: $3.25 - $3.40; My Early Rating: $2.25
R6 1. STAR RAIDER** Expect: $2.15 - $2.25; My Early Rating: $1.88
My Best value:
R2 3. TESSA BURRITO** Expect: $6.00 - $6.50; My Early Rating: $3.35
R5 6. TEXAS STORM* Expect: $4.60 - $4.85; My Early Rating: $3.10
Trainers to follow: Kris Lees**
Jockeys to follow: Andrew Gibbons***, Belinda Hodder*