Hopes of a breakthrough on same-sex marriage legislation before Christmas are dimming as conservative Liberals warn that a proposed push in the party room to free up government MPs to vote with their conscience would amount to waving through full marriage equality, given the overall numbers in Parliament.
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The National Press Club will host a nationally televised live debate on same-sex marriage reform on Wednesday, featuring two of the most outspoken participants, Labor's Penny Wong and the Liberals' Cory Bernardi.
The two South Australian senators represent polar opposite positions, raising the prospects of a fiery debate.
While senior Liberals acknowledge a rumoured post-election plebiscite said to have been offered by Prime Minister Tony Abbott would probably be seen by voters as kicking the can down the road, and even as trickery, insiders say it is not needed anyway because the numbers in favour of reform are simply not there inside the Coalition party room.
If correct, it means the internal campaign to grant MPs and ministers the latitude to vote as they wish on a forthcoming private member's bill, would fall at the first hurdle.
One Liberal MP said there was clear support in the Liberal Party room for a free vote on same-sex marriage, but the issue was deliberately being conflated with support for the reform itself. "There is a campaign to muddy the waters."
As in many countries, public momentum in Australia appears to be building for legalised same-sex marriage, with even some conservative opponents dropping their objections in recent months, but key opponents say claims of a pro-reform majority within the governing parties is "a pipe dream".
Media reports have claimed Mr Abbott had floated the idea of granting Australians a plebiscite - or non-binding public ballot - at some point beyond the next election, as a way of taking the heat out of the issue in the immediate term.
But Coalition insiders contacted by Fairfax Media denied any such discussions had occurred.
One Liberal MP said that if the idea of a plebiscite after 2016 took hold, it would look as if the Coalition was "shifting the goalposts" on the same-sex marriage debate.
"How can we look remotely credible?"
Another Liberal source dismissed talk of a plebiscite as a delay tactic, describing it as "desperation from the rabid right".
Even strong opponents of changing the Marriage Act said they believed Mr Abbott would be unwise to delay unreasonably an attempt to bring the question to a formal discussion in the party room.
The ALP settled its policy over the weekend, agreeing to a politically clumsy hybrid proposal to give Labor MPs a free vote until the end of the next term of Parliament, while binding them to support equality should the issue be voted on after that. Failure by a Labor MP to support the party policy after 2019 - when the next term is expected to end - would cause automatic expulsion.
Liberal MPs Warren Entsch and Teresa Gambaro are due to lodge their cross-party bill for same-sex marriage with the House of Representatives' Tables Office when Parliament resumes next month.
