Goldman Sachs's head of economics, commodities and strategy research for Australia and New Zealand Tim Toohey said exporters and import-exposed industries set to benefit from the lower currency had been stymied by falling exchange rates and currencies around the world, and by capital flows into Australian financial assets such as bonds.

This means that although falling sharply against the US dollar, the Aussie had dropped much less on a trade-weighted basis, which is against a basket of currencies reflecting Australia's main trading partners and competitors.

This measure should mirror the huge drop in commodity prices since the middle of last year, but has become distorted by extreme monetary easing around the world and Australia's attractiveness to international financial investors.

"When we think about financial conditions, we think about it in reference to the real exchange rate versus commodity prices, and that's the thing that has really opened up," Mr Toohey said.

"So you can't make the case that the currency has actually moved appropriately with the fall in national income, [which reflects] falling commodity prices."

Although the Aussie is trading closer to what many – including the Reserve Bank of Australia – have deemed an ideal level, Goldman Sachs believed the local unit could slip to US72¢ this year, from around US78¢ at the moment.

It also forecasts a slump in gross domestic product growth this year to just 2 per cent, compared with 2.5 per cent in 2014.

The bank's calculations are based on continued decline in resources-related investment, weak commodity prices – including for LNG – and subdued consumer spending and business investment.

Fourth-quarter and full-year GDP figures released this week showed the annualised pace of GDP growth slowed to 1.7 per cent during the second half, the worst since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Real gross domestic income, a measure of value of goods and services produced by Australians whose proceeds stay in the country, has slowed to zero according to official statistics.

External demand for services such as education and tourism would have to pick up, along with internal consumption and business investment, before Australia returned to the pace of growth which created jobs, said Mr Toohey.

He fears unemployment may continue to climb from its current 12-year high of 6.4 per cent.

"The income side is always more important – it drives 80 per cent of consumption," he said.

"We've seen wages at record lows.

"It's the combination of the excess supply in the labour market and that fragility that's in people's minds.

He said companies had been rewarded by shareholders "to take costs out", which equates to job cuts, or hiring freezes at best.

"There's also a fiscal element," he said.

"Consumers know, perhaps not individually but as an aggregate, that either benefits will be cut or taxes will rise in order to align the fiscal position."

However, it was not all bad news, Mr Toohey said.

Further cuts to the cash rate by the RBA should bring the Australian dollar down further, and house construction and investment was going some way to offsetting the sharp fall in resource-related activity.

The tide of foreign portfolio flows that were helping prop up the currency also appeared to be turning, he said.

"One of the reasons we're still optimistic the currency can fall is that it appears that those flows are starting to dissipate somewhat," he said.

However, filling the hole left by the end of the mining infrastructure boom remained challenging.

"The traditional thing you'd be saying at this point is that the currency will move to a weak enough point where you see investment in areas that obviously get the benefit: education, tourism, to a degree, manufacturing," he said.

"Unfortunately, you're not really seeing much sign of these – even in net tourism flows, departures have had a resurgence.

"In terms of education flows, we even had an education provider which had a bit of a profit warning," he said.